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China is pushing Hong Kong as a global hub for Stablecoins, which are digital currencies backed by fiat money.
Western analysts correctly point out that China, uniquely among large economies, is aggressively building out the financial infrastructure and regulation for digital currencies, issued by the central bank. But these analyses err on a major point: the stablecoins issued by Hong Kong institutions will not be China-yuan denominated, as they assume. Instead, they will be denominated in US dollars, and will be a powerful driver of economic growth to the benefit of the Chinese financial system, and without exposing their own currency to outside speculators, seizure, or debt issuance.
To see how this may play out, consider the explosive growth of Tether, a stablecoin with stated US dollar reserves of $116 billion and 1-to-1 parity with the US dollar. The sudden rise and global acceptance of Tether serve as a playbook for Chinese banking regulators, who are sitting on nearly $4 trillion in US dollar reserves, with hopes to deploy these deep capital pools but without exposure to the Western banking system.
Resources and links:
Reuters, Tether's $100 billion stokes stablecoin stability concerns
https://www.reuters.com/techno....logy/tethers-100-bln
Learn how Tether (USDT) Makes Money
https://www.markets.com/educat....ion-centre/how-tethe
Inside the Russian Shadow Trade for Weapons Parts, Fueled by Crypto
Hong Kong to increase digital asset regulation in next 18 months, with focus on stablecoins
https://coingeek.com/hong-kong....-to-increase-digital
Tether’s Ascent: Breaking Down the Dominant Stablecoin's Growth
https://coinmetrics.substack.c....om/p/state-of-the-ne
Forbes, The House Bans The Fed From Building A CBDC Like The Digital Yuan
https://www.forbes.com/sites/d....igital-assets/2024/0
Reuters, What and where are Russia's $300 billion in reserves frozen in the West?
https://www.reuters.com/world/....europe/what-where-ar
China contends for the central position in the global economy
https://merics.org/en/6-china-....contends-central-pos
ASEAN: The ultimate winner of a China-US rivalry (Part I)
https://www.thinkchina.sg/econ....omy/asean-ultimate-w
Tether Stablecoin Home Page
https://tether.to/en/
Closing scene, Hong Kong
Of all the legacy carmakers, Ford Motor Company is best positioned to survive the onslaught of Chinese auto brands. Ford dominates in pickup trucks and commercial vans, industry segments in which Chinese automakers are not yet competitive abroad. They are also the most profitable markets on a per unit basis. The high tariffs and import bans that are designed to keep Chinese models out of North America are of little help to Ford, but serve ironically as a lifeline to Japanese and European companies who exist only as long as the tariffs do.
But Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford Motor, nevertheless is making huge changes at Ford based on his recent experiences in China. In a new strategy, Ford will abandon entirely its ambitions to compete in China in the passenger vehicle markets, and everywhere else in electric vehicles made by Ford's domestic factories. Instead, they will aggressively build new electric vehicle models in light and heavy trucks, designed by their engineers in the US, but produced and distributed by their Chinese joint venture partners.
Resources and links:
Kelly Blue Book, The 25 Best-Selling Cars of 2024 … So Far
https://www.kbb.com/best-cars/....top-10-25-best-selli
Wall Street Journal, What Scared Ford’s CEO in China
https://www.wsj.com/business/a....utos/ford-china-ev-c
Wall Street Journal, Ford Cuts Lightning Output in Latest Sign of EV Downshift
https://www.wsj.com/business/a....utos/ford-to-cut-pro
Wall Street Journal, A Chinese Phone Maker Did Something Apple Couldn’t: Make an EV
https://www.wsj.com/business/a....utos/a-chinese-phone
New Report: SUVs, Ford F-series, Toyotas are 2023’s bestselling cars in America
https://insurify.com/car-insur....ance/insights/bestse
Americans Review The BYD Shark Plug-In Hybrid Pickup And Love It
https://insideevs.com/news/733....031/americans-review
Motor Trend, It's No Mystery Why the F-150 Lightning EV Isn’t Selling Like Ford Hoped
https://www.motortrend.com/new....s/ford-f-150-lightni
Reuters, Changan Ford Motor to set up electric car JV with Chongqing Changan Auto
https://www.reuters.com/market....s/deals/changan-ford
Investors Business Daily, Ford's China Partner Makes Bold EV Move In World's Top Auto Market
https://www.investors.com/news..../fords-china-partner
Closing scene, Gaoyi Mountain Scenic Area, Chenzhou, Hunan Province
China runs large trade surpluses with the United States. Typically these funds would be returned to the US as capital investments, either through buys of fixed assets, securities, or lending.
China, however, is liquidating stakes in companies in the United States, and is selling off its portfolio of Treasury bonds.
These two trends are resulting in enormous imbalances in Balance of Payments, which much be re-balanced via China's central banking activities. China is clearly recycling giant capital pools from the United States for investment purposes inside China, and among China's top trading partners.
And because the US dollars are never returned to the capital markets, it is also clear that China and the BRICS countries are setting up their own trading and economic bloc, funded largely with US debt instruments.
(Editor note: At about the 2:00 mark, I misspoke. The US ran a trade deficit of approximately $800 billion, not surplus. Apologies.)
Resources and links:
Bloomberg, US Trade Deficit Widens to $78.8 Billion, Largest in Two Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news..../articles/2024-09-04
Why is China dumping US Treasuries for gold?
https://x.com/SputnikInt/statu....s/178313812393054619
Vanishing Act: The Shrinking Footprint of Chinese Companies in the US
https://rhg.com/research/vanis....hing-act-the-shrinki
China Should Explain ‘Enormous’ Data Gaps, US Ex-Official Says
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/in....vesting/2024/09/06/c
Bloomberg, China Plans to Sell Dollar Bonds in Saudi Arabia as Ties Deepen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news..../articles/2024-11-05
The Economist, Chinese firms are growing rapidly in the global south
https://www.economist.com/brie....fing/2024/08/01/chin
Closing scene, Yangzhou Gardens, Jiangsu
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