Layoffs at John Deere blow up investment thesis on food shortages; US farmland to see liquidation

Venture Capital and Private Equity firms poured tens of billions of dollars were poured into shares of farm equipment makers, fertilizer companies, and even indoor vertical farms and cropland. Conventional wisdom was that these were very safe investments that would yield outsized returns as the world struggled to feed itself over coming decades.

That investment thesis has now collapsed, amid plunging global food prices and soaring farm productivity. The ag sector of the developing world produced record crops, and did so without the expensive equipment produced by major Western farm equipment makers, such as John Deere and Case New Holland.

As VC and PE firms are now seeing double-digit annual declines in cash flows from their investments into the agriculture theme, we should expect them to sell their positions, and return to tech sector investment.

Resources and links:

Deere Announces More Layoffs
https://www.dtnpf.com/agricult....ure/web/ag/news/equi

John Deere announces more Midwest layoffs
https://www.agriculture.com/jo....hn-deere-announces-m

John Deere announces another round of layoffs, this time of 287 workers in Quad Cities
https://www.desmoinesregister.....com/story/money/busi

Bill Gates Portfolio: 7 Best Stocks to Buy Now
https://money.usnews.com/inves....ting/articles/bill-g

Barrons, World Hunger Is on the Rise. These Companies Have Solutions.
https://www.barrons.com/articl....es/companies-solving

Politico, The world food crisis is about to get worse
https://www.politico.eu/articl....e/world-food-crisis-

McKinsey, A reflection on global food security challenges amid the war in Ukraine and the early impact of climate change
https://www.mckinsey.com/indus....tries/agriculture/ou

The World Is Headed for a Food Security Crisis. Here’s How We Can Avert It
https://time.com/5216532/globa....l-food-security-rich

Who Will Feed China?: Wake-Up Call for a Small Planet (Worldwatch Environmental Alert)
https://www.amazon.com/Who-Wil....l-Feed-China-Environ

Bill Gates Increases His Stake in Deere to More than 10%
https://www.rermag.com/earthmo....ving/article/2095500

Investment firms are buying more farmland
https://www.morningbrew.com/da....ily/stories/investme

Reuters, Investment funds stocking up on US farmland in safe-haven bet
https://www.reuters.com/market....s/commodities/invest

Average Chinese national now eats more protein than an American: UN food agency
https://www.scmp.com/news/chin....a/science/article/32

China factory sourcing website:
www.made-in-china.com

What does vertical farming mean to investors?
https://avisomo.com/vertical-farming-investors/

The vertical farming boom is over (for now). What went wrong?
https://sifted.eu/articles/ver....tical-farming-boom-o

U.S. Agricultural Land Values and Cropland Cash Rents Reach Record Levels Amid Falling Commodity Prices
https://www.fb.org/market-inte....l/u-s-agricultural-l

Land Report: Bill Gates nation’s largest private owner of farmland
https://landreport.com/land-report-100/bill-gates